Week four — nuclear strikes, a failed ceasefire, and 10,000 more troops

The week in numbers

1,900+ dead in Iran. 1,100+ in Lebanon. 13 US service members killed. Zero congressional votes authorizing any of it.

The US-Israel war on Iran closed out its fourth week in its most dangerous phase so far — nuclear facility strikes, a ceasefire proposal so lopsided Tehran called it "deceptive," a third failed Senate vote to assert war powers, and the threat of total destruction of Iran’s power grid hanging over 90 million people with a deadline of April 6.

Meanwhile, across the United States, millions prepared to take to the streets for what organizers say could be the largest day of protest in American history. The war — unauthorized, unvoted, and increasingly unpopular — is one of three central demands: no kings, no ICE, no war.

Nowruz under bombardment

March 21 — Nowruz, the Persian New Year — passed under sustained aerial bombardment. Air defenses activated over Tehran as Iranians tried to mark the first day of their new year. The bombs did not stop for the holiday. They did not stop for Eid al-Fitr either.

By this point, US and Israeli forces had conducted over 8,000 aerial sorties and struck more than 7,800 targets across Iran since February 28. The US deployed A-10 Warthog attack aircraft and AH-64 Apache helicopters to hunt Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz — ground-attack platforms built for close-range killing, now patrolling one of the world’s most critical waterways.

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, issued a written Nowruz message claiming Iran had dealt a "dizzying blow" to its enemies. It was a written statement read on state media. Not a video. Not an in-person appearance.

Israel strikes nuclear sites

On March 27, Israel crossed a line it hadn’t crossed before: direct strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

The Israeli Air Force hit the Khondab heavy water complex near Arak, the Yazd uranium processing facility — described by Israel as "unique" in Iran’s nuclear program — and a projectile struck near the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant. Two major steel plants, Khuzestan Steel and the Mobarakeh Steel complex in Isfahan, were also destroyed. Strikes on Qom killed at least 18 people.

Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization confirmed the strikes but reported no casualties, structural damage, or radiation leaks at the nuclear facilities. The IRGC Aerospace Commander warned the conflict was "entering new territory," stating the equation would "no longer be an eye for an eye" and urging regional employees of US and Israeli companies to leave immediately.

These strikes came while ceasefire negotiations were supposedly underway. Draw your own conclusions about the sincerity of the diplomatic track.

The 15-point plan nobody could accept

On March 25, Iran formally rejected a US ceasefire proposal transmitted via Pakistani intermediaries. Tehran called the 15-point plan "extremely maximalist and unreasonable" — and "deceptive and misleading in its presentation."

The US demands, as described by Pakistani and Egyptian officials: surrender enriched uranium stockpiles, halt all enrichment, curb ballistic missiles, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and end support for regional allies. Total capitulation dressed up as a peace plan.

Iran countered with five conditions of its own: end assassinations of Iranian officials, guarantee no future military attacks, pay war reparations, cease operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and allied forces in Iraq, and international recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi clarified that message exchange through mediators "does not mean negotiations." There have been no direct Iran-US talks since the war began.

On March 26, Trump extended his deadline for destroying Iran’s energy infrastructure by 10 days — to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8:00 PM Eastern — claiming Iran had asked for more time and that talks were "going very well." He said Iran had allowed 10 oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as a "present." The IRGC Navy stated the same day that the Strait "is closed and that any traffic through it will face a severe response." Both claims cannot be true.

Pakistan offered to host in-person talks. The UN Security Council held closed-door consultations on Friday at Russia’s request. No resolution emerged.

Congress fails — again

On March 24, the US Senate voted 53-47 to block a war powers resolution that would have required congressional authorization for continued military operations against Iran. Third time since February 28 that Republicans killed such a measure.

Every Republican except Rand Paul (Kentucky) voted against. Every Democrat except John Fetterman (Pennsylvania) voted for it.

Senator Chris Murphy (D-Connecticut): "If our Republican colleagues will not do their duty... then we will force a debate and a vote on this floor."

Senator Tammy Duckworth (D-Illinois): "They need to explain their case, respecting the American people enough to tell them why."

Democrats are demanding public congressional testimony from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio about the war’s justification and endgame. The administration has offered shifting objectives — from regime change to degrading Iran’s military capabilities — without committing to either.

Thirteen US service members are dead. Approximately 200 are wounded. Not one member of Congress voted to send them.

The administration vs. itself

One month of war. Zero consistent explanations for why.

The Trump administration’s stated objectives have shifted so many times that tracking the contradictions has become its own beat. Here is what they said — and when they said the opposite.

Feb 28 — Why did we attack?

• Secretary of State Rubio: There was "an imminent threat" justifying a preemptive strike.
• Trump, same week: "No, I might have forced their hand. ... If anything, I might have forced Israel’s hand."
• Press Secretary Leavitt: Trump had a "good feeling" Iran would attack.

Three officials. Three different reasons. Pick one.

Mar 1 — How long will it take?

• Trump to the Daily Mail: "It will be four weeks or so. It’s always been about a four-week process."
• Trump the next day, at the White House: "We projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that."

Mar 6 — What’s the endgame?

• Trump on Truth Social: No deal "except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER." After selecting new leadership, the US would rebuild Iran.
• Trump a week later (Mar 13): Doesn’t matter whether Iran actually says it surrendered — as long as the US is in "a position of dominance."

Unconditional surrender, unless it’s conditional. Got it.

Mar 8-9 — Is the war over or just starting?

• Defense Secretary Hegseth on CBS (Mar 8): "This is only just the beginning."
• Trump the same day: The war is "very complete, pretty much" and "way ahead of schedule."
• Trump one day later: The war is "both complete and just beginning."
• Also Trump: "We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough."

Mar 11 —

• Trump: "We don’t want to leave early, do we? We’ve got to finish the job."

The war that was "very complete" three days ago now can’t end early.

Mar 22 — Winding down, or unleashing hell?

• Trump, morning Truth Social post: Washington was "very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down" military operations.
• Trump, one hour later: Threatens to "obliterate" Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened within 48 hours.
• The Pentagon, simultaneously: Announced three additional warships and 2,500 Marines heading to the region.

Winding down. With reinforcements.

Mar 24 — Talking to whom?

• Trump: Claimed Iran offered a valuable "prize" and that he was "in negotiations right now."
• Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi: "No negotiations have happened with the enemy until now, and we do not plan on any negotiations."
• Trump also said Iranian leaders were "all gone" and "nobody knows who to talk to" — then, in the same exchange: "But we’re actually talking to the right people, and they want to make a deal so badly."

Mar 26 — The deadline that keeps moving

• Trump: Extended his energy infrastructure destruction deadline to April 6 because Iran gave him "ships" as a present and talks were "going very well."
• IRGC Navy, same day: The Strait of Hormuz "is closed and any traffic through it will face a severe response."
• Hegseth on PBS, earlier in the week: "We negotiate with bombs."

That’s the negotiating strategy. Bombs and deadlines and a president who contradicts himself hourly — and an administration that cannot name the mission, the timeline, or the endgame. Four weeks in.

No Kings Day

On March 28, Americans responded where their representatives would not.

Over 3,200 protests planned across every congressional district in every state — and on six of seven continents. Organizers say it could be the largest day of domestic political protest in US history. The flagship rally in St. Paul, Minnesota features Bruce Springsteen, Jane Fonda, Joan Baez, and Senator Bernie Sanders.

The war in Iran is one of three central themes — "No kings, no ICE, no war."

Two-thirds of RSVPs come from non-urban areas — a 40% increase from previous No Kings actions. The protests are reaching places that don’t usually protest.

AFT President Randi Weingarten: "We couldn’t find money for healthcare while spending billions on war."

The economic shockwave

The Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of the world’s oil normally flows — remains effectively blockaded. Tanker traffic is down approximately 70%. More than 2,000 vessels and 20,000 seafarers are stranded.

Oil prices have risen roughly 45% since the war began. Brent crude peaked at $126 per barrel and settled around $112 — the highest since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. By multiple accounts, the largest energy supply disruption since the 1970s oil crisis.

Iraq’s oil exports have plummeted 70%. The Philippines ordered fuel rationing. Sri Lanka cut street lighting by 25%. The World Bank is preparing emergency financial assistance for affected emerging markets. And it goes beyond oil — aluminum, fertilizer, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural supply chains are all hit.

At home, the war is costing American taxpayers an estimated $1-2 billion per day. Total spending — including operations in support of Israel in Yemen and the wider Middle East — stands between $31 billion and $34 billion. House Speaker Mike Johnson expects the Pentagon to formally request $50 billion in emergency funding.

That’s roughly $11,574 per second at the lower daily estimate. You’re welcome.

The wider war

The conflict is not contained. It never was.

In the Gulf states, Saudi Arabia intercepted 32 drones and ballistic missiles targeting Eastern Province oil facilities on March 25. Kuwait’s Shuwaikh port was damaged by a drone attack; another hit near the international airport. Bahrain has destroyed a total of 143 missiles and 242 drones since February 28. Debris from an intercepted projectile killed two civilians in Abu Dhabi — an Indian and a Pakistani national.

In Lebanon, Israeli ground troops are in combat with Hezbollah in the south. The death toll has reached 1,100+, with 1.2 million displaced. Israel plans a 30-kilometer "security zone."

Iran fired missiles at the joint US-UK Diego Garcia military base in the Indian Ocean. Iraq’s government granted Iran-backed militias the right to retaliate against US strikes from Iraqi territory. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed 23 operations against "enemy bases" in 24 hours.

The EU accused Russia of providing intelligence to Iran to "kill Americans."

The Pentagon is weighing an additional 10,000 ground troops for the Middle East — joining roughly 7,000 Marines and 82nd Airborne paratroopers already deploying. Over 50,000 US forces are now in the region, including two carrier strike groups and approximately 200 combat aircraft. A decision is expected next week. The force would likely position within striking distance of Kharg Island, the small strip of land that handles 90% of Iran’s oil exports.

What’s next

The April 6 deadline looms. Trump has promised to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure — power plants, the electrical grid — if Tehran does not capitulate. For 90 million Iranians already enduring four weeks of bombardment, that is collective punishment on a civilizational scale.

Congress will not act. Three votes, three failures. The administration answers to no one — shifting its stated objectives from week to week, bombing nuclear sites while claiming talks are going well, threatening apocalypse while demanding gratitude for a 10-day pause.

The people in the streets today are asking the question their representatives refuse to: who authorized this?

One month in. Same answer: nobody.